Report Summary
The 2024 Trends Shaping the Health Economy Report is a fact-based national analysis of the trends that will define the landscape, and subsequent challenges, for all players in the health economy.
The U.S. health economy is the most expensive health system in the world, underwritten by the Federal government, state Medicaid programs and employers. National health expenditures increased from $2.8T in 2012 to $4.5T in 2022, despite relatively little change in demand or utilization, and are projected to grow to $7.7T by 2032.
Americans have little to show for the continuously increasing amount of money invested in the U.S. healthcare system. The average life expectancy for Americans is only negligibly higher than it was in 2000 and is almost four years lower than other OECD countries. Americans have higher rates of obesity and diabetes and more behavioral health conditions than ever before.
In this fourth installment of our Trends Shaping the Health Economy Report, we expand upon our foundational conclusions from the past three years to examine in more detail the concept of value.
Key Takeaways
- Health status for Americans continues to decline, especially for younger Americans. Mortality remains higher than pre-pandemic, with the largest increase in the 18-44 age group.
- Early onset cancers are rising, with higher volumes of patients ages 45 and younger for breast (+6.6%), colon (+10.0%), kidney (+2.1%) and uterine (+16.0%) cancers from Q4 2018 to Q4 2023.
- GLP-1s have surpassed insulin to become the second most common medication for type 2 diabetes, rising from the eighth most common drug regimen in 2018.
- Actual usage for clinical artificial intelligence (AI) remains low, with only 202K patients across all AI CPT codes between 2018 and 2023.
Methodology
A variety of data sources were leveraged as part of this research, with most insights gleaned from Trilliant Health’s proprietary datasets with visibility into patients and providers across the country. Trilliant Health’s national all-payer claims database combines commercial, Medicare Advantage, traditional Medicare and Medicaid claims, providing a nationally representative sample on a deidentified basis. Claims-based data analyses use data through Q4 2023.
Trilliant Health’s Provider Directory enables a direct view into providers and their practice patterns. Trilliant Health’s health plan price transparency dataset is comprised of health plan machine-readable files that have been parsed. Trilliant Health leverages its Provider Directory and claims data against the health plan price transparency dataset to reveal the negotiated reimbursement rate between any health plan and any provider for any service rendered at any location.
Additional data were obtained from a variety of publicly available sources (and are noted in respective source notes), including individual health system, health plan and company financial statements, Census Bureau, KFF, the Congressional Budget Office, American Hospital Association, American Medical Association, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Healthcare Cost Report Information System and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This research does not include data from self-pay encounters or encounters provided at no cost through commercial insurers.
Most data are presented with a national view, while some were exclusively focused on counties or the largest markets – defined as the core-based statistical areas (CBSAs) – to illustrate local variation. Most analyses in the 2024 Trends Shaping the Health Economy Report are limited to the commercially insured population, which generates most of the health economy's revenue.
About the Author
Micro Edition
Turn insights into action with the 2024 Trends Shaping the Health Economy Report: Micro Edition
The eight macro trends are not intended to provide all of the answers. While the public report reveals trends affecting stakeholders across the U.S. health economy, each stakeholder must understand how these trends impact their sector, local markets and patient populations to put them into practice effectively.
